For wholly attributable chronic and acute conditions, we similarly calibrated functions relating either mean weekly units or maximum daily consumption to absolute risk to published evidence on the absolute number of cases observed.8This process was undertaken both for annual mortality risk for each condition and for morbidity risk, where morbidity was defined as the annual rate of person specific admissions to hospital. Condition specific mortality rates for each age and sex based subgroup are taken from published analyses of 2005 06 Office for National Statistics, and morbidity rates from 2005 06 hospital episodes statistics.10The modelled change in consumption for each subgroup then feeds into a change in relative or absolute risk, and the potential impact fraction method17 is used to adjust observed mortality and morbidity rates. For chronic conditions, there can be a time lag between population level changes in alcohol consumption and changes in outcome, and we chose a linear time lag function of 10 years to realisation of full effect, which is consistent with average estimates in the literature.18Framework for base case and sensitivity analysesFor all ban on below cost selling analyses, we estimated the average duty plus VAT per unit of alcohol for beer, cider, wine, spirits, and ready to drink beverages (or alcopops) in the United Kingdom based on the duty rates set by Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs effective from 25 March 2013.
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